Effect of COVID-19 on Victoria: report

| April 22, 2020

New modelling shows the potentially unprecedented impact the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic may have on the Victorian economy across the rest of the year and into 2021.

Under the modelling, from the Department of Treasury and Finance the economy is anticipated to contract in the June quarter of 2020, with real GSP estimated to be about 14 per cent lower in both the June and September quarters than forecast in the 2019-20 Budget Update.

Under this scenario, Victoria’s unemployment rate could rise to 11 per cent, and job losses could peak at around 270,000 in the September quarter. These estimates include the mitigating impacts of Victorian and Commonwealth Government support packages.

Property prices could decline by up to 9 per cent from March to December 2020.

The road to recovery will be longer than first expected, with the magnitude of the downturn meaning that Victoria would likely record negative economic growth in both 2019-20 and 2020-21.